The Debt‐Payment‐to‐Income Ratio as an Indicator of Borrowing Constraints: Evidence from Two Household Surveys

Liquidity constraints have been proposed as an important explanation for deviations from the rational expectations/permanent income hypothesis. This paper introduces to the liquidity constraint literature the ratio of a household's debt payments to its disposable personal income, the debt service ratio (DSR). We find that a household with a high DSR is significantly more likely to be turned down for credit than other households. Also, the consumption growth of likely constrained households, identified using the DSR along with the liquid‐asset‐to‐income ratio, is significantly more sensitive to past income than that of other households, confirming the DSR's value in identifying constrained households.     

The Output Effect of a Transition to Price Stability When Velocity Is Time Varying

This paper explores the effect of time‐varying velocity on output responses to policies for reducing/stopping inflation. We study a dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices in which we introduce time‐varying velocity. Specifically, we endogenize time‐varying velocity into the model developed by Ireland (1997) for analyzing optimal disinflation. The nonlinear solution method reveals that, depending on velocity, the “disinflationary boom” found by Ball (1994) may disappear even under perfect credibility and that early output losses may be much larger than previously thought. Indeed, we find that a gradual disinflation from a low inflation may even be undesirable.     

Girls for Sale? Child Sex Ratio and Girl Trafficking in India

ABSTRACT

Illegal trafficking of girls results from their disadvantageous position in society, often reflected by preference for sons and neglect of daughters. India has both higher levels of illegal trafficking of girls and abnormal child sex ratios in favor of boys. This paper examines if the skewed sex ratio in India is associated with trafficking of girls. Using panel data from twenty-nine Indian states from 1980 to 2011, the study finds that a 100-unit increase in the child sex ratio is associated with a 0.635 percent increase in girl trafficking. Further, the association is heterogeneous by women’s empowerment, crime against women, and party rule in the state, and the association between the child sex ratio and trafficking of girls is stronger and larger in magnitude in states with greater women’s empowerment. Overall, it appears the results are driven both by greater reporting and a greater incidence of illegal girl trafficking.     

大股东控制与现金持有价值关系的经验研究

本文以沪深两市2005—2010年391家上市公司为样本,检验了大股东控制对中国上市公司现金持有价值的影响。研究发现,第一大股东持股比例与企业价值间是一种近似U型的非线性关系,第一大股东持股比例的临界点为45%。将第一大股东持股比例与现金持有量的交互项引入模型,回归发现,当第一大股东持股比例小于45%时,交互项的系数显著为负,大股东控制的壕沟效应占主导;当第一大股东持股比例超过45%时,交互项的回归结果不显著。没有证据表明第一大股东性质会对企业价值发挥显著影响。     

基于改进的BP-LM在中国人口老龄化预测中的应用

由于人口老龄化率的预测具有高度非线性特征，这与BP神经网络能够处理非线性问题的特征相符合，但BP神经网络算法易使解陷入局部极小。基于L-M算法的改进BP神经网络可以有效克服这一问题，而且收敛速度快。通过具体的仿真及实践结果验证了改进BP的有效性，并对未来五年的中国老龄化率进行了预测。     

A Framework for Reconsidering the Lake Wobegon Effect

The Lake Wobegon Effect (LWE) describes the potential measurement-error bias introduced into survey-based analyses of education issues. Although this effect potentially applies to any student-report variable, the systematic overreporting of academic achievements such as grade point average is often of preeminent concern. This concern can be easily circumvented if official records data are available; however, many researchers can only access student-reported data. In this article, the authors examine whether using student-survey data in place of official records data meaningfully biases regression estimates. They motivate their contribution by noting a useful statistical feature of overreporting on bounded variables such as grade point average. Specifically, the misreports will be negatively correlated with the true grade point average, yielding a form of nonclassical measurement error that actually counteracts the bias. The authors connect this observation to reliability ratios used in labor economics, which are simple ways to adjust for attenuation bias, when needed. In two applications, we find that it is unnecessary to correct for the LWE bias because it is so small.     

从固定资产重估看银行资本的提升

分析在国内外会计准则下，通过固定资产重估提升银行资本、缓解监管压力的可行性。根据我国会计准则的相关要求，在固定资产重估方面，目前只能通过投资性房地产重估、固定资产转换与并购重组三种路径提升银行资本，从而达到提升资本充足率的目的，但前两种方法却在一定程度上降低了杠杆率水平，且其市场实施效果也并不乐观。     

Performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe ratio: The case of hedge funds

As recent research highlights that the Sharpe ratio has a decision theoretic foundation even in the case of asymmetric or fat-tailed excess returns and thus is adequate even for the evaluation of hedge funds, this note provides the first Sharpe ratio based performance analysis of the hedge fund market. Furthermore, it addresses the important practical question whether the choice of hypothesis test used to statistically compare Sharpe ratios can influence an investor’s hedge fund selection process. Our key findings are as follows: (i) Only a small fraction of hedge funds in our large dataset can significantly outperform passive investments in corresponding hedge fund indices. (ii) Especially in the presence of autocorrelated or skewed excess returns, the traditional test of Jobson and Korkie, 1981, Memmel, 2003 tends to overstate the number of significant outperformers and thus provides potentially misleading information for investors. Decision makers are advised to use the bootstrap test of Ledoit and Wolf (2008) allowing robust and more reliable inference.     

The business model and balanced scorecard in creative tourism: the ultimate strategy boosters

Despite the various studies on creative tourism, little managerial frameworks such as a business model and a balanced scorecard are investigated for this new phenomenon. The overall image that emerges from the literature is ambiguous and fuzzy. Also, many activities known as creative tourism experiences may provide new participative experiences but rarely include a creative process. This study covers a whole aspect in designing a feasibility test model for creative experiences based on balanced scorecard through qualitative content analysis and as the essence of that, a Business Model by content validity and clustering analysis. Analysis of data by the mentioned methods reveals that four perspectives and 13 critical success factors are essential for the feasibility of a creative tourism experience. In addition, 22 indicators in 3 main dimensions determine the success of a creative tourism business model. This study is part of a growing body of research focused on discovering hidden aspects of creative tourism.